I Bonds rate reset prediction thread (April 2026)

Time for the semi-annual I Bond speculation thread. The next rate reset is May 1, 2026, based on CPI data from October 2025 through March 2026.

Here's what we know so far:
- Current composite rate (bonds issued Nov 2025 - Apr 2026): 3.11% (1.20% fixed + variable component)
- The fixed rate has been decent lately -- 1.20% is the best we've seen since 2007
- CPI-U has been running around 2.5-2.8% annualized for the past few months

Based on the inflation data we have so far (Oct-Dec 2025), I'm tentatively predicting the new variable rate will be somewhere around 2.4-2.8% annualized, which would put the composite rate for bonds issued after May 1 at roughly 2.4-2.8% variable + whatever the new fixed rate is.

The big question is whether Treasury keeps the fixed rate at 1.20% or adjusts it. If real yields stay where they are I'd expect the fixed rate to stay the same or maybe tick up slightly.

Anyone else tracking the CPI numbers? Would love to see other people's predictions.

I'll update this thread as more CPI data comes in through March.

I've been tracking the CPI-U numbers monthly. Here's what we have:

Month CPI-U MoM Change
Oct 2025 315.442 +0.18%
Nov 2025 315.891 +0.14%
Dec 2025 316.347 +0.14%
Jan 2026 316.810 +0.15% (just released)

We still need Feb and Mar data. Assuming similar monthly changes (~0.15%), my back-of-envelope calculation puts the semiannual inflation rate at about 1.35-1.45%, which annualizes to 2.70-2.90% for the variable component.

So composite rate for bonds issued May 2026+: probably around 3.90-4.10% if fixed rate stays at 1.20%.

Not bad honestly. Still competitive with HYSAs and the fixed rate component means you get inflation protection forever on those bonds.

I'll post updated calculations when Feb CPI drops.

Good data Dan. For those who aren't familiar with how I Bond rates work:

The composite rate has two parts:
1. Fixed rate -- set when you buy, stays the same for 30 years. Currently 1.20%.
2. Variable rate -- resets every 6 months based on CPI inflation. Changes in May and November.

So the key question is: should you buy before May 1 (lock in current rates) or wait to see what the new rates are?

If Dan's projection is right and the new variable rate goes up, you might want to wait. But remember -- if you buy NOW, you get the current variable rate for 6 months and then it resets to the new rate anyway. And you lock in the 1.20% fixed rate either way (assuming it doesn't change).

The only reason to wait is if you think the fixed rate will go UP in May. If it stays the same or goes down, buying now is weakly better because you start earning sooner.

I bought my $10k limit in January. No ragrets.

sorry dumb question but how do you actually buy i bonds? is it through your brokerage like fidelity or is it something else? and is there really a $10k limit per year?

@saving_noob_2026 You buy them directly from the US Treasury at TreasuryDirect.gov. Can't buy them through a brokerage. Yes the limit is $10,000 per SSN per calendar year in electronic bonds (you can also get up to $5k in paper bonds through your tax refund but that's a whole thing).

Fair warning: the TreasuryDirect website is... not great. It looks like it was built in 2003 because it basically was. But it works. You create an account, link your bank, and buy bonds. The whole process takes about 20 minutes the first time.

One important thing: you can't redeem I Bonds for the first 12 months. And if you redeem between 1-5 years you lose the last 3 months of interest. So this is NOT a place for money you might need soon. It's more for medium-term savings that you want to protect from inflation.

I've been buying the $10k max every January for the past 6 years. For me it's just part of the fixed income allocation. The 1.20% fixed rate is genuinely good -- during the low-inflation years the fixed rate was 0.00% for a long time. If inflation comes back down the fixed rate becomes the floor on your return.

The way I think about it: I Bonds are the only truly risk-free inflation-protected savings vehicle available to retail investors. TIPS exist but they trade on the secondary market so you can lose money if rates rise. I Bonds can never lose principal.

The $10k limit is annoying but it is what it is. My wife and I each buy $10k so that's $20k/year into I Bonds as a household.

Agreed the TreasuryDirect site is terrible btw. Every time I log in it feels like time traveling to 2004.